Whew! Seasonal uptick in housing prices

February 4, 2011

by Scott Sambucci

1 comment

Positive news for the housing market today from the good folks at Clear Capital reporting  “a quarter-over-quarter national price change of -1.6 percent. Despite the negative quarterly price change, the national index [referring to their HDI measure] has demonstrated a positive trend since the start of 2011.”

Our weekly Price of New Listings measure corroborates the story (look for our February National Housing report in a couple of days):

Altos 20-City Composite: Price of New Listings, Oct '10 to Jan '11 (90-day rolling average)

In our Q4, 2010 webcast, we announced an expected spring-time bounce – we get one every year:

Altos 20-City Composite: Price of New Listings since January 2008: (90-day rolling average). "Price of New Listings" measures the median price of the homes for sale entering the market each week. It is one of the most leading indicators of future transaction prices.

The price of new listings regularly leads the Case-Shiller by 3-4 months. The trough to peak to 2012 trough will be pivotal for knowing if 2011 is the beginning of the end for the housing doldrums.  Supply will continue to influence prices but if it drips at a steady pace, it might give the market and employment to catch up.  We’re starting the long road to recovery every day.  Good to see the market is acting with some optimism and normalcy so far in 2011.

(Check out the complete release on the Clear Capital website.)

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