Glad to see another source validate what we have been reporting for months. the only difference with our data is we report the sale price per square foot change. This factor, in our opinion provides some more depth to analysis and as such report changes ahead of the game.

Altos has always provided credible research to local markets. Keep up the good work and don’t mind the critism when activuty drops later this year. It should and not because the market is weak, but simply because real estate markets do follow seasonal patterns. these patterns have more to do with school years than weather (In the Northeast, weather is an issue).

Our data, correlated with your reports does indicate a bounce back from the lows, but people should not confuse this bounce other than a correction to the “panic” that occurred in late 2008.

Another element that I would like to see is the rate of absorption relating to the existing oversupply of housing. It appears that some analysts are mxing apples and oranges for this component. New construction inventory does not represent all of the sales (more like 25%), so the over supply will take longer than 12 months to absorb.

I am curious to understand the inventory level you list. Does this represent homes listed for sale? What about the properties being held off the market? The natural cycle of annual sales falls around 5 million units a year or 5% of residential dwelling population (it does grow annually as the population) grows). During the boom it reach over 6 million units. So if we adjust for normal times, one can expect the cycle to be fairly stable for the next several years and your statement above will hold true:

Why sell in a down market unless you have to.

Nice summary here with some informative data. It has been encouraging to see the increase sales volume, and the dramatically low inventory in some areas (some communities has less than 3 months), but a lot of that seems due to the REOs, and to a less extent the short sales. Looking an price ranges, and parceling out the REOs and short sales would very likely show a vastly different picture. It is very much a wait and see time IMO.

Sorry I missed you talk at REBarCamp Orange County – SFO perhaps?

Inventory Trends:
http://charts.altosresearch.com/altos/app?s=inventory:l,&ra=a,c&q=a&st=DC&c=WASHINGTON&z=a&sz=m&ts=e&rt=sf&service=chart&pai=49012868&co=0&d=

Listings Absorbed:
http://charts.altosresearch.com/altos/app?s=median_listings_sold:l,&ra=c&q=t,u,l,b,&st=DC&c=WASHINGTON&z=a&sz=m&ts=e&rt=sf&service=chart&pai=49012868&co=0&d=

Interesting how the lower middle quartile is moving faster than the lowest 25% of the market there.

You can also play around with some free data on our AltosXplorer application:
https://www.altosresearch.com/altos/features/AltosXplorer.page