The housing market’s volatility (and a good meme…)

October 6, 2011

by Scott Sambucci

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A shout out to Rick Sharga for working in our “Catfish Recovery” meme into his recent presentation. From HousingWire:

“We’re looking at a catfish recovery,” he [Rick] told attendees at the Asian Real Estate Association of America conference in San Francisco Friday, saying the market will bump along the bottom for some time before starting to revive.

More than a million foreclosure actions that should have taken place this year have not yet moved forward, and that delay pushes a resolution of the housing market’s problems into next year and beyond…

Indeed, it’s an inventory problem, and not because there’s too much of it. Check out our October 2011 National Housing Report:

The mass liquidation of foreclosure portfolios is best described as a trickle.  The inventory is coming on the market slowly as more loans are modified to keep homeowners in their homes.  Although the millions of properties in the shadow inventory are still looming, there is nothing that indicates a flood of foreclosures hitting the market anytime soon.

(And hey, we’re not the only ones seeing the market’s volatility – Clear Capital’s recent report talks of a “triple dip” in housing.)

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