The History of Good News

June 23, 2011

by Mike Simonsen


The best way to predict the future is to invent it. – Alan Kay

Or just measure really quickly. – me

Sometimes I feel like we beat this dead horse too much. But I’m feeling particularly smug today so I’ll take another whack.

The dominoes are falling as the traditional HPIs are starting to recognize that housing prices aren’t falling through the floor this quarter. It was only a few weeks ago that S&P Case-Shiller announced their March data and the Double Dip headlines screamed. Today, Radar Logic released their RPX data for April and is the latest of the HPIs to tick up month over month.  For your refresher, here’s how history unfolded.

SourceDate of InflectionDate Published
Altos 20-city Composite Price of New Listings (weekly)January 14, 2011January 17, 2011
Altos 20-city Composite Median Price (weekly)February 4, 2011February 7,2011
DISCERN Housing Market AnalysisFebruary 7, 2011
Altos 20-city Composite Median Price (90 Day Rolling Avg)March 25, 2011March 28, 2011
Altos Catfish Recovery WebcastJune 1, 2011
CoreLogic HPIApril, 2011June 1, 2011
FHFA national home price indexApril, 2011June 22, 2011
Radar Logic RPXApril, 2011June 23, 2011
S&P Case Shiller 20 City CompositeApril, 2011June 28, 2011
*DISCERN is our equities research partner for the Buy Siders.  DISCERN’s director of applied analytics, Brett Kornfeld, relentlessly produces powerful insights based on Altos Research data and some other really fascinating inputs. By March, DISCERN’s equities clients were well aware of the spring inflection. Brett was out on a lonely limb for a few months.


The greatest trades happen when you see the inflection points coming before the rest of the market. How’s your foresight?



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