One reason the Case-Shiller is up for May

July 26, 2011

by Scott Sambucci

2 comments

It’s up.

Why?

Open market supply (a.k.a “inventory”)is less volatile this Spring relative while prices have shown resilience to the supply that did hit the market:

Active market supply since January 2008: Altos 20-City Composite

But… Expect the Spring-time rally to fade.  An increasing number of active sellers are taking prices reductions (orange line below) and new sellers entering the market each week are starting to price to the down side of this year’s peak (black line below) – which mean lower prices later this year that won’t show up in the Case-Shiller numbers for another 3-4 months.  (See: “The History of Good News“)

Price of New Listings & Percentage of Active Sellers taking Price Reductions: Altos 20-City Composite

Want to stay ahead of the lagging national indices like the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index?  Check out our National Housing Report – it’s free and updated monthly.

Interested in the rest of the country?  Check out our Mid-Cities National Report.  (Also free and updated monthly because we’re givers like that.)

 

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