October home prices are so passe… Inventory & Days-on-market are the real story for 2012

December 27, 2011

by Scott Sambucci


Yes, home prices are down… Back in October…

…but getting less bad because inventory is down and still declining. The foreclosure pipeline is clogged in Florida, while New York and New Jersey still have their robo-signing hangovers:

Year-over-year Ask Prices & Active Market Inventory: Altos 20-City Composite, weekly averages

The constrained supply is also keeping days-on-market in check – sellers are still able to unload their for-sale properties in a tolerable period of time:

Days-on-Market: Altos 20 City Composite, 90-day rolling average

Still don’t inventory or days-on-market matter?

Take the extreme case – what if there were only 100 homes for sale in the entire country?  Then prices would be higher regardless of how many houses are in foreclosure or how poorly consumer expectations remained.

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