October home prices are so passe… Inventory & Days-on-market are the real story for 2012

December 27, 2011

by Scott Sambucci

18 comments

Yes, home prices are down… Back in October…

…but getting less bad because inventory is down and still declining. The foreclosure pipeline is clogged in Florida, while New York and New Jersey still have their robo-signing hangovers:

Year-over-year Ask Prices & Active Market Inventory: Altos 20-City Composite, weekly averages

The constrained supply is also keeping days-on-market in check – sellers are still able to unload their for-sale properties in a tolerable period of time:

Days-on-Market: Altos 20 City Composite, 90-day rolling average

Still don’t inventory or days-on-market matter?

Take the extreme case – what if there were only 100 homes for sale in the entire country?  Then prices would be higher regardless of how many houses are in foreclosure or how poorly consumer expectations remained.

{ 15 comments }

Vicky December 28, 2011 at 6:26 am

It will certainly be a bumpy recovery! The major slump is happening in the big cities. But I hope this will pass. It will soon pass for 2012 particularly in months of April to August.

Janice Holmes December 29, 2011 at 7:24 am

These big cities are in a major low when it comes to real estate market. I hope it’ll get better in 2012. For sure many investors are keeping their fingers crossed.

Charles Forte January 3, 2012 at 7:24 am

true that! I really hope that there are big and better changes to happen in 2012 especially in the trend in real estate market. Good vibes for the 2012, please! And oh, I am one of those people keeping their fingers crossed. :)

Andrea December 29, 2011 at 7:28 am

Getting a foreclosed property in Florida is a wise decision to do now. However investors in these places like my friend are hoping for a recovery in the year 2012.

Scott Grace December 29, 2011 at 12:12 pm

Very informative post. I have been keeping an eye on the Market in your area and other areas in the US. Our market here in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada is doing quite well but we are dependent on a strong economy of our largest trading partner(you). I have seen some reports that things are looking up for 2012 for most markets in the US. I am hoping this is true and the results are far better than the outlook. All the best in 2012! =)

Precious January 3, 2012 at 12:37 am

The industry still has a long way to go. Admittedly, it won't be back up just like its peak days but reports indicate that as compared to 2008 and previous years, the problems have slowed down – or as it has been put out lately. Nonetheless, this is a refresher considering how many reports have tried covering the real deal or the real conditions. As investors, it can be tough seeing as we depend on market trends and market reports to determine whether or not anything still proposes a good deal.

Louise Carter January 4, 2012 at 12:23 pm

I think these positive signs is the start of the market recovery. Hoping for a better economy to have a better market this 2012. Although it will not be back up immediately the nice thing about it is it gets higher.

Rich Cederberg January 4, 2012 at 8:05 pm

You make a valid point Scott. If there were only 100 homes for sale in the company most of us would be out of a job.

Rich Cederberg January 4, 2012 at 8:08 pm

Meant to say Country, not company.

real estate in us January 6, 2012 at 4:36 am

The trend shows that real estate for year 2012 goes up. Thank you for sharing this real estate trend to us. I really appreciate this post.

real estate in us January 6, 2012 at 4:37 am

The trend shows that real estate for year 2012 goes up. Thank you for sharing this real estate trend to us. I really appreciate this post. Hope you can post more about this.

Patricia January 7, 2012 at 8:35 am

I am glad to read the post as well. I think we needed that raise in the real estate industry because the year has just started and having to know it made the first pace to a good result then it will certainly flow to a remarkable chain reaction in the market. Thanks Scott!

Urban Interest January 12, 2012 at 2:16 am

I don't think it will get better in 2012. At the moment I rent a home but I want to buy a home at the best moment. But when it is?

Augusta Real Estate January 24, 2012 at 1:13 pm

I also don't think it will get better on 2012…

olay emlak May 2, 2012 at 3:51 pm

You make a valid point Scott. If there were only 100 homes for sale in the company most of us would be out of a job.

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