Market Conditions & Default Rates

May 5, 2010

by Scott Sambucci


Let me say it again – local market conditions matter when it comes to mortgage default rates.  (Check out Homeowner Hank and how LTVs might not matter as much as you think for more on market trends and homeowner psychology.)

This week on HousingWire, Paul Jackson – “Down the Rabbit Hole: Unraveling the Latest Delinquency Statistics” – writes about rising default rates on a national level – “it’s important to note that overall delinquencies (excluding foreclosure) were up 15.7 percent year-over-year in March, while foreclosure inventories surged 32.9 percent.”

Here’s why: Asking prices trends through early May look a lot like 2007 and 2008.

Month-on-Month Percentage Change: Altos 10-City Composite vs. Case-Shiller HPI

Lower prices and muted upward market trends means more nervous homeowners.  Here’s hoping for a big jump for a big price jump in May and June…

As for the reference to rising inventory, the answer is “yep”:

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