With personal wealth so heavily tied to real estate equity, voters answering the question “am I better off today than four years ago” may look at recent listing price trends.
From July 2011 through October 2012 we have seen a National Average increase in median values of 8.2% in 26 of the major MSA’s we track. Entrenched Red States beat the national average in 75% of cases, stalwart Blue States in only 25% of cases. Based on what we have, here’s what happens if we distribute the undecided states by assigning electoral votes based on whether the major metropolitan area value changes are above (Red) or below (Blue) the national average:
| National |
8.7% |
Prediction |
Electoral |
| Swing States | Votes | ||
| Denver, Aurora Boulder |
15.5% |
RED |
9 |
| Las Vegas, Paradise |
9.1% |
RED |
6 |
| Detroit, Warren, Livonia |
19.4% |
RED |
16 |
| Charlotte, Gastonia, Concord |
2.9% |
BLUE |
15 |
| Cleveland, Elyria, Mentor |
-15.8% |
BLUE |
18 |
| Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington |
-1.8% |
BLUE |
20 |
| Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater |
13.7% |
RED |
29 |
| Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Miami Beach |
15.3% |
RED |
And the final count looks something like the table below – meaning it is still too close to call and the remaining swing states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Virginia) hold the balance to the White House:
|
Probable 10/31[1] |
Redistributed |
Final Tally |
|
| Blue |
201 |
53 |
254 |
| Red |
191 |
60 |
251 |
| Undecided |
146 |
-113 |
33 |
{ 2 comments }
This is real interesting way to look at the way we in essence should be deciding our ballots at least on one major issue. It is kind of sad the so many states are in a sense irrelevant when it comes down to it. I mean it really doesn't even matter who I vote for in a given election as my state is almost always red it seems. Likewise even in swing states so many of us as Americans vote purely on emotion and who we really just like better instead of using figures and facts such as yours to determine who the best candidate would be. Which is probably due to the fact if one side produces numbers that say one thing the other can bring something that infers the exact opposite. Take global warming, how can studies be so off from one another? Why can't we just have more people that are objective.
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