Deciding the Election Based on Housing Values?

November 6, 2012

by Brandie Young

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With personal wealth so heavily tied to real estate equity, voters answering the question “am I better off today than four years ago” may look at recent listing price trends.

From July 2011 through October 2012 we have seen a National Average increase in median values of 8.2% in 26 of the major MSA’s we track.  Entrenched Red States beat the national average in 75% of cases, stalwart Blue States in only 25% of cases.  Based on what we have, here’s what happens if we distribute the undecided states by assigning electoral votes based on whether the major metropolitan area value changes are above (Red) or below (Blue) the national average:

National

8.7%

Prediction

Electoral

Swing States  Votes
Denver, Aurora Boulder

15.5%

RED

9

Las Vegas, Paradise

9.1%

RED

6

Detroit, Warren, Livonia

19.4%

RED

16

Charlotte, Gastonia, Concord

2.9%

BLUE

15

Cleveland, Elyria, Mentor

-15.8%

BLUE

18

Philadelphia, Camden,  Wilmington

-1.8%

BLUE

20

Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater

13.7%

RED

29

Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Miami Beach

15.3%

RED

And the final count looks something like the table below – meaning it is still too close to call and the remaining swing states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Virginia) hold the balance to the White House:

Probable 10/31[1]

Redistributed

Final Tally

Blue

201

53

254

Red

191

60

251

Undecided

146

-113

33

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