Deciding the Election Based on Housing Values?

November 6, 2012

by Brandie Young

2 comments

With personal wealth so heavily tied to real estate equity, voters answering the question “am I better off today than four years ago” may look at recent listing price trends.

From July 2011 through October 2012 we have seen a National Average increase in median values of 8.2% in 26 of the major MSA’s we track.  Entrenched Red States beat the national average in 75% of cases, stalwart Blue States in only 25% of cases.  Based on what we have, here’s what happens if we distribute the undecided states by assigning electoral votes based on whether the major metropolitan area value changes are above (Red) or below (Blue) the national average:

National

8.7%

Prediction

Electoral

Swing States  Votes
Denver, Aurora Boulder

15.5%

RED

9

Las Vegas, Paradise

9.1%

RED

6

Detroit, Warren, Livonia

19.4%

RED

16

Charlotte, Gastonia, Concord

2.9%

BLUE

15

Cleveland, Elyria, Mentor

-15.8%

BLUE

18

Philadelphia, Camden,  Wilmington

-1.8%

BLUE

20

Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater

13.7%

RED

29

Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Miami Beach

15.3%

RED

And the final count looks something like the table below – meaning it is still too close to call and the remaining swing states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Virginia) hold the balance to the White House:

Probable 10/31[1]

Redistributed

Final Tally

Blue

201

53

254

Red

191

60

251

Undecided

146

-113

33

{ 2 comments }

Ashlee January 10, 2013 at 11:16 am

This is real interesting way to look at the way we in essence should be deciding our ballots at least on one major issue. It is kind of sad the so many states are in a sense irrelevant when it comes down to it. I mean it really doesn't even matter who I vote for in a given election as my state is almost always red it seems. Likewise even in swing states so many of us as Americans vote purely on emotion and who we really just like better instead of using figures and facts such as yours to determine who the best candidate would be. Which is probably due to the fact if one side produces numbers that say one thing the other can bring something that infers the exact opposite. Take global warming, how can studies be so off from one another? Why can't we just have more people that are objective.

Angeline February 13, 2013 at 9:54 pm

I really like the post and interesting stuff.Real estate is good source for investment. Many people invested in real estate projects for projects and better lifestyle. Real estate is very important today's life. In this blog gave information about real estate which is very informative and useful.

Comments on this entry are closed.

Additional comments powered by BackType

Previous post:

Next post: