Can’t make a comeback unless you’ve been down…

January 12, 2010

by Scott Sambucci

1 comment

It’s an old gambler’s creed and today’s article on DSNews – “Las Vegas Real Estate Posts 2009 Positives Despite Recession” – indicates some numbers consistent with what we’ve been seeing over the past couple of months in Las Vegas.  (Check out – “Year-End 2009 Trends: The Southwest” from December 2009 and Housing in Las Vegas: “C’mon Black” from May 2009 on Seeking Alpha). Most importantly, the price declines are slowing after a couple of years of tough downward pressure, with single-family homes showing a strong push to level than condos:

Las Vegas Condo & Single-Family Home Price Trends

Las Vegas Condo & Single-Family Home Price Trends

Overlaying the Las Vegas single-family home price trends with Phoenix and Sacramento, two other housing bubble markets, it’s interesting to see that price decline slowdown lagged these markets by about a year:

Housing Price Trends: Las Vegas, Phoenix & Sacramento

Housing Price Trends: Las Vegas, Phoenix & Sacramento

Zooming in a little more into the Las Vegas market with a look at the price of new listings hitting the market each week compared to the market ask price:

Price of New Listings compared to Market Ask Price in Las Vegas

Price of New Listings compared to Market Ask Price in Las Vegas

We’re seeing that the new homes entering the market each week:

  • Have been steady for a few months now
  • The gap between the market ask price and the price of new listings is closing compared to 2008
  • Bouncing up early in the first two weeks of 2010.

Of course, gamblers also like to say – “two’s a trend, three’s a streak” – so we’ll be keeping an eye on the 7-day values each week until the 90-rolling averages start to show signs of turning in a positive direction.

Right now, I’d say the line on Vegas is a pick ’em but the smart money is leaning positive.

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