It’s an old gambler’s creed and today’s article on DSNews – “Las Vegas Real Estate Posts 2009 Positives Despite Recession” – indicates some numbers consistent with what we’ve been seeing over the past couple of months in Las Vegas. (Check out – “Year-End 2009 Trends: The Southwest” from December 2009 and Housing in Las Vegas: “C’mon Black” from May 2009 on Seeking Alpha). Most importantly, the price declines are slowing after a couple of years of tough downward pressure, with single-family homes showing a strong push to level than condos:
Overlaying the Las Vegas single-family home price trends with Phoenix and Sacramento, two other housing bubble markets, it’s interesting to see that price decline slowdown lagged these markets by about a year:
Zooming in a little more into the Las Vegas market with a look at the price of new listings hitting the market each week compared to the market ask price:
We’re seeing that the new homes entering the market each week:
- Have been steady for a few months now
- The gap between the market ask price and the price of new listings is closing compared to 2008
- Bouncing up early in the first two weeks of 2010.
Of course, gamblers also like to say – “two’s a trend, three’s a streak” – so we’ll be keeping an eye on the 7-day values each week until the 90-rolling averages start to show signs of turning in a positive direction.
Right now, I’d say the line on Vegas is a pick ’em but the smart money is leaning positive.