We’re at the Seasonal Peak of the Housing Recovery

June 24, 2013

by Mike Simonsen


Housing prices as of June 2013
Median Days on Market for Single Family Homes across the US. Note peak of activity at the end of June. By July, DOM starts climbing again. Homes moving super fast right now.

 Days on Market cycles since 2009

The last week of June is the seasonal peak of the US Real Estate market. After June 30, both supply and demand start declining through the end of the year.  The time to sell a home (as measured in Days on Market DOM) starts climbing. Prices decline alongside, until the January 7 trough and the seasonal reset for 2014.

This phenomenon isn’t always clear, since most of the headlines report transaction data from several months ago (tomorrow’s Case Shiller announcement will be data from February, March, and April. And, FWIW, it’ll show the explosive price growth we experienced in the first quarter.)

But the seasonal peak is as clear as the air atop a Colorado peak, if you look at the right data.

Right now we’re at the hottest moment of the hottest market we’ve had in years. Homes are selling faster than they have in years. This is true across the country and across price points. In the coming months, the headlines will be strong for prices. It’ll sound bullish. The housing bears will focus on stats like Days on Market, which will climb for the next six months. Keep an eye on how fast DOM climbs and where our peak looks before January. That’ll give you an idea of how sustainable this recovery has remained into 2014.

Days On Market is one of the powerful statistics in the Altos Lead Indicators suite, if you’re interested in details.



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